CFTC Opens Public Comment on Prediction Markets Rulemaking, United States, March 2026

On March 12, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) seeking public comment on whether to amend or issue new regulations governing event contracts traded on prediction markets. The ANPRM was issued under the Commission's authority pursuant to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and represents the start of a formal rulemaking process. The document is at the proposed rulemaking stage; no final rule has been adopted. Comments must be received within 45 days of the ANPRM's publication in the Federal Register.

The ANPRM asks questions under CEA Section 5c(c), which governs the listing and trading of event contracts on designated contract markets (DCMs). The Commission seeks input on the application of statutory core principles and Commission regulations to prediction markets, on the categories of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest under CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C), on cost-benefit considerations, and on other topics the Commission deems relevant to a future rulemaking. The ANPRM does not itself alter existing rules but signals the Commission's intent to exercise exclusive CEA jurisdiction over prediction markets.

For DCMs currently listing event contracts — including sports outcome markets, political event markets, and financial event derivatives — the ANPRM signals active regulatory scrutiny. DCMs must weigh the cost-benefit considerations the Commission will require in any future rulemaking and should anticipate updated product-submission requirements. Prediction market operators that are not registered as DCMs, including offshore platforms accessible to U.S. persons, face increased exposure to CFTC enforcement under the Commission's reaffirmed exclusive jurisdiction. Intermediaries such as futures commission merchants and introducing brokers who facilitate access to prediction market contracts must confirm their registration obligations under Part 3 of the Commission's regulations.

The ANPRM comment period closes 45 days after Federal Register publication. The Commission stated it will use the responses to inform potential future agency action, including a formal rulemaking. No safe harbor is created for currently listed contracts during the comment period. A concurrent Staff Advisory (Release No. 9193-26) reminded DCMs of existing obligations under CEA Section 5(d) and Part 38, Core Principle 3, and Appendix C guidance, and addressed sports-related event contracts specifically. The interplay between the ANPRM, the Staff Advisory, and pending Congressional proposals regarding prediction markets leaves open the scope and timing of any final rule.

Prokopiev Law Group advises clients on CFTC regulatory matters and prediction market compliance, and maintains a dedicated partner network for U.S. derivatives regulation. Contact us for guidance. Our work in this area covers event contract structuring, DCM compliance, CEA Section 5c(c) analysis, prediction market licensing, sports betting derivatives, CFTC registration, and cross-border enforcement exposure.

Source: CFTC Press Release No. 9194-26, "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Relating to Prediction Markets," March 12, 2026. Official URL: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26. Confirmed March 24, 2026.

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