CFTC Initiates Prediction Markets Rulemaking with Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in March 2026

On March 12, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) in the Federal Register, formally initiating the public comment phase of rulemaking concerning event contracts traded on prediction markets. The ANPRM does not propose specific rule text; it solicits comment to inform potential future agency action. Comments were due within 45 days of Federal Register publication.

The controlling statutory authority is the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), 7 U.S.C. § 7a-2, which grants designated contract markets the authority to list event contracts subject to the Commission's oversight. The ANPRM cites CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C), which permits the Commission to prohibit event contracts that are contrary to the public interest, and directs the Commission to issue regulations identifying the categories of such contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig described the ANPRM as "the beginning of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act" that simultaneously preserves the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

The ANPRM asks public commenters to address: (i) how CEA core principles and existing CFTC regulations apply to prediction markets; (ii) which categories of event contracts should be treated as contrary to the public interest and thus prohibited; (iii) the costs and benefits associated with prediction market activity; and (iv) other topics the Commission identifies as relevant to future rulemaking. The ANPRM is part of a broader CFTC enforcement and rulemaking initiative on prediction markets, which also includes the March 12, 2026 Prediction Markets Advisory issued by the CFTC's Division of Enforcement (Release No. 9193-26) and the Commission's February 25, 2026 advisory (Release No. 9185-26). Concurrently, the CFTC has filed litigation against multiple states seeking confirmation of its exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Because the ANPRM is at a pre-proposal stage, no compliance deadlines, specific prohibitions, or safe harbors apply under this instrument. Prediction market operators, DCM licensees, digital asset exchanges that offer event contracts, and institutional participants should monitor the comment record and the Commission's subsequent rulemaking steps closely.

Our firm advises prediction market operators, designated contract markets, digital asset exchanges, and institutional market participants on CFTC regulatory matters, event contract compliance, and ANPRM comment submissions. We maintain a dedicated partner network for CFTC regulatory matters and welcome inquiries from market participants seeking guidance on prediction market rulemaking developments. Relevant work we handle includes: CFTC regulatory compliance, event contract rule analysis, prediction market licensing, DCM applications, and public comment submissions.

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Release No. 9194-26, "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Relating to Prediction Markets," March 12, 2026. Available at: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26. Confirmed April 24, 2026.

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