CFTC Issues Prediction Markets ANPRM, Opens 45-Day Comment Period, March 2026

On March 12, 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) seeking public comment on whether to amend or issue new regulations governing event contracts traded on prediction markets. The ANPRM was published in the Federal Register on March 16, 2026, as Document No. 2026-05105 (91 FR 12516). This is a pre-rulemaking stage: no proposed rule text has been issued. The Commission will use comments received to inform whether and how to proceed with a formal rulemaking.

The governing statute is the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and the ANPRM operates under 17 CFR Chapter I (RIN 3038-AF65). The ANPRM asks questions concerning the application of statutory core principles and Commission regulations to prediction markets, the types of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest under CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C), cost-benefit considerations under CEA Section 15(a), and product submission requirements under Part 40 of Commission regulations. Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that the ANPRM "begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act."

Prediction market operators, registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), Swap Execution Facilities (SEFs), and intermediaries that list or facilitate trading of event contracts should treat the ANPRM as the opening of a formal consultation process. Market participants who wish to influence how the CFTC defines permissible event contracts, applies core principles, or structures the public-interest prohibition must submit written comments. This action also signals that the CFTC asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over these markets, potentially displacing state-level restrictions on prediction market activities.

The comment period closes 45 days from the March 16, 2026 Federal Register publication date, placing the deadline on or about April 30, 2026. Comments may be submitted via the CFTC's Public Comments Portal. The ANPRM does not itself change existing rules; current Part 38 DCM core principles and the CEA Section 5(d) core principles continue to apply unchanged pending any final rulemaking. Separately, the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a companion staff advisory on the same date (CFTC Press Release 9193-26) reminding DCMs of their existing regulatory obligations, particularly regarding sports-related event contracts.

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, "Prediction Markets," 91 FR 12516, Document No. 2026-05105 (Mar. 16, 2026); CFTC Press Release No. 9194-26 (Mar. 12, 2026). Available at: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26 and https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/03/16/2026-05105/prediction-markets. Confirmed: March 16, 2026.

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